Data shows home prices are not falling Late last year, some housing experts projected a 2023 crash in home prices. The media hyped up these forecasts with doom and gloom headlines. This made some people put their plans to move on hold for fear home values would come tumbling down like they did in 2008. It’s your job to use data and visuals to show them that didn’t actually happen. Let’s clear the air and get to the facts. Despite the media’s stormy predictions, home prices didn’t crash – not even close. The real data tells a different story. Take a look at this graph showing three trusted sources, and you’ll see that prices bounced back quickly after experiencing only minor declines last year (see graph below): This proves the declines we did see weren’t dramatic but were short-lived. As Nicole Friedman, a reporter at the Wall Street Journal, explains it: “Home prices aren’t falling anymore. . . the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected. . .” Basically, the worst home price declines are behind us. Nationally, home prices have rebounded and are still rising. The slow return to seasonal normality Here's what to expect. Home prices follow a predictable seasonal trend and that trend is what’s starting to happen this year. Just like the changing of the seasons, the housing market has its own cycles. To get a clear picture of what’s normal for the market, let’s go back in time for a moment. Check out the graph below – it’s based on Case-Shiller data from 1973 to 2022 (unadjusted for seasonality). It’ll help you explain how home prices usually change throughout the year: At the beginning of the year, home prices grow, but not as much as they do in the spring and summer markets. That’s because the market is less active in January and February since fewer people move at that time of year. As the market transitions into the peak homebuying season in the spring, activity ramps up, and home prices go up a lot more in response. Then, as fall and winter approach, activity eases again. Price growth slows, but still typically appreciates. That’s what we’re starting to see – deceleration of appreciation, not depreciation.  Now, look at this next graph. It takes the graph from above on the long-term trend and adds in the latest numbers available for this year. That way it’s even easier to tell the story. The black bars represent the average home price movement over 49 years, while the green bars show what’s happening this year: Prices are still going up, just a bit slower. Sometimes the media gets it wrong, thinking slower growth means prices are dropping. That’s not true – it’s just that appreciation is happening at a more typical pace. Bottom Line I don’t want to pretend that this is an easy market.   Interest rates are high, and homes are less affordable.  But the axiom in our business is “marry the house, date the rate”.   We believe that prices will hold steady or increase a bit, and that once rates drop (maybe in a couple of years, prices will balloon again, because there just isn’t enough on the market to allow prices to fall.   If you buy now, at that time, I’ll be there to recommend a refinance at a better rate.  When you're ready to sell, we hope you'll have built a lot of equity.   Call me any time, with any question or concerns.  I’m always available.

      If you’re planning to buy your first home, then you’re probably focused on saving for all the costs involved in such a big purchase. One of the expenses that may be at the top of your mind is your down payment. If you’re intimidated by how much you need to save for that, it may be because you believe you must put 20% down. That doesn’t necessarily have to be the case. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) notes: “One of the biggest misconceptions among housing consumers is what the typical down payment is and what amount is needed to enter homeownership.” And a recent Freddie Mac survey finds: “. . . nearly a third of prospective homebuyers think they need a down payment of 20% or more to buy a home. This myth remains one of the largest perceived barriers to achieving homeownership.” Here’s the good news. Unless specified by your loan type or lender, it’s typically not required to put 20% down. This means you could be closer to your homebuying dream than you realize. According to NAR, the median down payment hasn’t been over 20% since 2005. In fact, the median down payment for all homebuyers today is only 14%. And it’s even lower for first-time homebuyers at just 6% (see graph below): What does this mean for you? It means you may not need to save as much as you originally thought. Learn About Options That Can Help You Toward Your Goal And it’s not just how much you need for your down payment that isn’t clear. There are also misconceptions about down payment assistance programs. For starters, many people believe there’s only assistance available for first-time homebuyers. While first-time buyers have many options to explore, repeat buyers have some, too. According to Down Payment Resource, there are over 2,000 homebuyer assistance programs in the U.S., and the majority are intended to help with down payments. That same resource goes on to say: “You don’t have to be a first-time buyer. Over 38% of all programs are for repeat homebuyers who have owned a home in the last 3 years.” Plus, there are even loan types, like FHA loans with down payments as low as 3.5% as well as options like VA loans and USDA loans with no down payment requirements for qualified applicants. If you’re interested in learning more about down payment assistance programs, information is available through sites like Down Payment Resource. Then, partner with a trusted lender to learn what you qualify for on your homebuying journey. Bottom Line Remember, a 20% down payment isn’t always required. If you want to purchase a home this year,  call or text me to start the conversation about your homebuying goals.